Tighter regulation needed on prediction markets that offer trades around tragedies
There are still far too many ways morally reprehensible people can profit from devastating events. Also, First Nations communities can benefit from regulated gambling, and a LinkedIn debate.
From the Department of It’s Crazy This Needs To Be Said Out Loud, let’s start with this: Prediction markets should be strictly prohibited from offering contracts that allow people to trade on events causing human suffering or which may encourage human actions that may lead to suffering.
That should be obvious, but, sadly, it’s not, since there are still plenty of morally reprehensible humans willing to try to profit from such suffering.
And, yes, there’s a lot of grey in all this because, to a large degree prediction markets – even in the PM wild west that is the United States – are indeed prohibited from offering such contracts. But, that’s an easy workaround in a global world connected by the internet.
Technically, Polymarket did not allow U.S. customers to trade on the outcome of the devastating 2025 LA wildfires. But it did allow such trades on its offshore, global platform. So, it wouldn’t take a tech genius in either the U.S. or Canada to figure out a way to get in on the human-suffering action.
“I think morally reprehensible is a pretty great way to say it,” said Kaitlyn Trudeau on CBC Radio’s The Current on July 28 when asked about people trading contracts based around the LA wildfires. Trudeau is a California-based applied climate scientist at the nonprofit Climate Central.
“It just feels like very devoid of human empathy. I don’t think people necessarily are trying to be that way. But I think it’s unfortunately too easy for people to kind of put out of their minds that these are real people. This isn’t a game. You know, people are losing their homes, their lives, everything they’ve worked for in their entire life and their communities… It does feel very cold and heartless.”
As bad is the fact that such contracts can encourage reprehensible human behaviour in an attempt to profit.
Wildfire markets – while far from the worst contracts offered by the ghouls at some offshore prediction sites that sometimes take wagers on wars and deaths – are a great example. Wildfires can be started by humans, especially those with something to gain.
Hence why Canada needs to be very careful about what it allows prediction markets to offer.
As we reported in our newsletter item bemoaning the arrival of prediction markets in Canada, currently, three main areas are prohibited from being offered by prediction markets in Canada:
Political event contracts – “The rationale is straightforward: political event markets create risks around manipulation, insider information, and democratic integrity,” said the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO)
Contracts based on unlawful activities
Sports and entertainment contracts — “Contracts based on sports outcomes, entertainment awards, or reality television results are not permitted. Regulators have determined these are closer to gambling than financial derivatives. Sports betting in Canada is regulated separately under provincial gambling frameworks.”
Prediction markets in Canada can legally offer:
Economic forecasts – such as those contracts based on economic statistics
Environment forecasts – i.e. contracts based on climate indicators related to the average global temperature
Financial indicators — example: US 500 Forecast Contracts that settle based on the daily settlement price of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
Of course, that’s how things stand today and is no guarantee of future policy. So, it’s yet another reminder that regulators need to tightly control and articulate what prediction markets can and cannot offer.
I’m not sure why anyone would wager a single penny on anything that can be easily manipulated, but I guess some people are not risk-averse.
A company that offers such markets offshore should be banned from operating in any capacity in either Canada or the United States. Full stop.
It’s sad we need to regulate human decency, but that’s exactly why laws exist.
Such decency always should trump that old saw from the prediction markets that their products are useful in helping people navigate a volatile world.
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First Nations stand to benefit from increased gambling
Tom Nightingale had a good story in Canadian Gaming Business recently about how First Nations stand to benefit from a growing involvement in legalized gambling.
This comes mostly in growing First Nations ownership of commercial casinos in western Canada, but also from a direct two per cent cut of online gambling proceeds in Alberta and an encouragement from the provincial government for First Nations to get involved, directly, in online gambling by launching their own platforms.
A growing involvement in the gambling industry is one path to a sustainable future for Canada’s First Nations.
Former Loto-Québec chair, ex-BCLC boss debate public policy on LinkedIn
In a couple of recent dispatches, we’ve highlighted in the Reading and Reflecting section a couple of LinkedIn posts by former BCLC CEO Greg Moore. The latest one from Moore suggested “multibillion-dollar global corporations” offering sports betting and igaming through regulated and grey markets “may ultimately facilitate the transfer of Canadian gambling revenue, profits, data and economic value to foreign corporations, many of them based in the United States”.
Moore, who was interim president and CEO at BCLC between August 2019 and January 2021 and now owns a consulting business in Vancouver, also made the case for provincial lottery and gaming corporations:
“Canadian Crown corporations and provincially regulated gaming organizations return billions of dollars to governments to support health care, education, community programs and public services. They also employ Canadians, contract with Canadian businesses and operate within clear public-interest mandates.”
That post attracted a wave of comments, among them from Hélène Fortin, the former long-time chair of the board of directors (2008-2021) for Loto-Québec and a former member of the Canadian Senate. From Fortin’s response:
“I understand the privilege—and responsibility—of leading a provincial lottery corporation. That is why I was surprised by your comments regarding Alberta’s regulated iGaming market.
“Provincial governments establish public policy. Lottery corporations execute the mandates they are given. Those are fundamentally different roles.
“Alberta’s framework does not expand online gambling. Online gaming has existed for years, including in British Columbia. The policy question was whether that activity should remain largely outside a regulated framework or be brought into one that provides consumer protections, responsible gaming standards, regulatory oversight, and economic benefits for Canadians.”
Also:
“You also express concern about foreign ownership. Yet gaming has always been a global industry. Great Canadian Entertainment is U.S.-owned, and BCLC itself partners with international companies such as Bally’s, BetMGM, Scientific Games, and Kambi. That is the reality of today’s gaming industry, not a flaw unique to Alberta’s model.
“Reasonable people can disagree on public policy, but those debates should be grounded in facts. As Chairs of provincial lottery corporations, our responsibility is to govern our organizations and faithfully execute the mandates established by our respective governments—not to publicly criticize the policy decisions of neighbouring provinces.”
That prompted Moore to post:
“I agree that gaming is a global industry and that Crown corporations procure technology and services from international suppliers. However, there is an important distinction between procuring technology and designing a competitive market.
“It is also worth noting that BC gov. has publicly directed ministries, health authorities and Crown corporations to reduce reliance on U.S. suppliers and, where practical, prioritize Canadian procurement. As you correctly point out, Crown corporations implement the policy direction established by government, and B.C. Crown corporations have been expected to align their procurement practices with that direction where practical.
“That is why I believe it is reasonable to ask whether the same principle should also be considered when governments design the regulatory framework for online gaming. If “Buy Canadian” is an important public policy objective for procurement, should it also be a consideration when determining who ultimately benefits from Canada’s gaming market?”
Fortin also pointed to an economic contribution report commissioned by iGaming Ontario and produced by Deloitte in early 2024. Moore responded by posting a link to a research article published last month by Taylor & Francis on a “cross-provincial analysis of player and revenue channelization”.
You can bet this debate will continue.
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Can FIFA be trusted on match-fixing dismissal?
“I believe in integrity. Dogs have it. Humans are sometimes lacking it.” - Cesar Milan
We’re a little late to the proverbial party on this one. But. . . .
Given the actions of FIFA czar Gianni Infantino in 2026 – including the now-doomed business venture involving the brother of U.S. president Don Trump’s son-in-law – it’s damn near impossible to take seriously the global soccer organization’s claim that the men’s World Cup came and went without any “suspicious betting activity” or possible match-fixing around the tournament’s 104 watches.
That’s . . . umm. . . a different take than that of the Group of Copenhagen, which according to The Athletic flagged seven possible cases of match manipulation with ties to betting activity. You can read the full report, which included for the first time monitoring of prediction markets, here. And, for your reading pleasure, here’s the link to the FIFA Integrity Task Force’s report.
Back in 2018, Declan Hill wrote about match fixing at previous FIFA-sanctioned events. Wishing for purity in a sporting world in which you aren’t trying if you aren’t cheating or it’s win at all costs is sadly too often wishful thinking. FIFA’s long history of corruption, not delivering on promises and buffoonery (i.e. Fantino presenting Trump with a beyond-bogus FIFA World Peace Prize pre-tournament) makes it so damn difficult to believe the report from its internal integrity task force.
Perhaps we’ll be proven wrong (again).
Betty: Experience and trust in Canada’s next regulated market
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The article examines Betty’s expansion into Alberta, lessons learned from Ontario, and why building lasting relationships with players requires a commitment to transparency, responsible gaming and thoughtful product design from Day One.
Read the full article here.
Nightingale, Zochodne appear on latest GNC Show
Speaking of Nightingale, he and Covers’ senior news analyst Geoff Zochodne were Steve McAllister’s guests on the most recent Gaming News Canada Show.
Among many topics, the gambling journalists took a deep dive into Alberta’s recent launch and the potential future for the province’s PlayAlberta platform, the rise of prediction markets and the continued growth of the Ontario market.
You can listen to the show here or watch it here:
People on the Move
Breaking news this morning that Peter Jackson is stepping down as Flutter Entertainment’s CEO and will be replaced by Dan Taylor.
There was news Monday from Continent 8 Technologies with Mike Small’s appointment as Chief Executive Officer and Founder Michael Tobin moving into the Chair’s role.
Patrick McHugh is retiring as Chief Executive Officer at Scientific Games after more than two decades with the company. Kevin Schneider has been named interim CEO.
Antoine Jouteau is appointed CEO as Banijay Gaming.
Lindsay Horricks is named Chief Operating Officer at iLottery Consultancy.
Amy Santos, ex of Pragmatic Solutions, William Hill and The Rank Group, is named Chief Operating Officer at ThrillTech.
Ex-Bede Gaming veep Jessica Marrs is the new Vice President, Player Experience at White Hat Gaming.
Willie Lik bids adieu to Fan Duel and his Vice President of Product gig to join Midnite as VP, Product.
Sarah Fox is joining the UK Gambling Commission to lead the Gambling and Lotteries team for the Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Gaming.
Simon Stojanovska is named Head of Partnerships at Quantum.
Hannah McCune is appointed Head of Internal Audit and Assurance for Global Gaming Solutions’ new Audit & Assurance division.
Kathryn Spry is leaving FanDuel and her role as Director of Technology Strategy and Operations. The company promotes Jason Donders to Director, Customer Marketing.
Penn Entertainment promotes Emily Kananoja to Director of Customer Experience.
Steven Flak joins IGT as Senior Manager, Talent Acquisition Operations.
Games Global promote Abi Kermode to Product and Game Manager.
Jared Weber joins FanDuel as a Sports Trader.
Richard Course is leaving Stats Perform and his role as Senior VP, Rights.
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Classified (Jobs) Information
On the Home Front
There’s an opportunity in Toronto for a Vice President of Digital Marketing (iGaming).
BCLC is on the lookout for a Senior Specialist, Corporate Security.
Wanted by the AGCO: a Director, People and Culture Strategy, an Advisor, Operational Priorities and a Senior Application Developer (HRIS).
iGaming Ontario is looking for a Risk Officer.
Hard Rock Digital has a remote opening for a Senior Manager – Risk Operations.
In the city below Creemore, Entain is hiring a CRM Executive to lend a hand to its Sports Interaction business.
There’s an opportunity at Bet99 for a Quality Assurance Automation Engineer.
The Toronto Star has a quartet of job openings in its newsroom.
PWHL HQ has a remote opening for a Director, Content.
Cossette Media is in hiring mode for a Director, Digital.
The Canadian Olympic Committee is looking for a Product Manager, Digital Marketing.
The Toronto Rock lacrosse franchise is seeking a Director of Ticket Sales and Service.
Hamilton Sports Group has open a trio of coordinator roles.
South of the Border
BetMGM is searching for a Senior Vice President, Transformation and AI Strategy and a Director, Risk and Payments Operations.
In the Big Apple, Better Collective is hiring a Head of Marketing & Growth – Playbook.
Light & Wonder is looking for a Game Producer.
On Board Experiential is seeking a Vice President, Sports Marketing Strategy.
USA Today has an opening for an NFL Deputy Editor.
Front Office Sports is searching for a College Football Reporter.
Across the Ponds
Armenia-based SoftConstruct is seeking a Head of People Analytics.
LeoVegas Group is looking for a Safer Gambling Analyst – Nordics.
There’s a hiring spree happening at NEXT.io.
There’s a call for three senior executive-level gigs.
Relax Gaming continues to be in hiring mode.
There’s a remote opening in Bulgaria for a Senior Data Engineer.
Esports business Oddin.gg has need of a Machine Learning Engineering Manager.
Reading and Reflecting
ConnexOntario executive director Nerin Kaur keyboarded an op-ed for The Trillium on the increase in calls since the opening of the province’s regulated gambling market in April 2022.
Count Rush Street Interactive among the operators bullish on Alberta, wrote Tom Nightingale.
Betsson Group has dotted the I’s and crossed the T’s on acquiring the Rhino Entertainment Group’s B2C business licensed in Canada – including CasinoDays – and a set of technology assets for its B2B operations.
A Calgary man told CBC reporter Salim Valji about his battle with gambling addiction and concerns with Alberta’s new regulated market.
BetMGM’s partnership with Marriott Bonvoy will now include Alberta.
Mkodo, proprietors the GeoLocs product, is getting together with Venture Labs to be look after geolocation compliance for its new online gaming platform in Ontari-ari-ari-o.
One-stop shopping courtesy of Geoff Zochodne on last week in prediction markets news.
Tom Nightingale reported for SBC Americas on lawmakers in Illinois trying to improve treatment of gambling disorders.
Gambling Insider reporter Gary McFarlane did some digging into Kalshi’s penny parlays and the news isn’t great for the people putting down those pennies.
Sportico’s Dan Bernstein reported on Kalshi’s ties to a social media account that is a frequent poster of anti-Black and anti-Muslim material.
An op-ed for InGame calls for sports betting critics to spend more time on the illegal market.
Brant James of Gambling Insider has the deets on the man in the middle of a court case around three illegal gambling messes.
Very, very good reading from ESPN columnist Dan Wetzel on the just-released The Betrayal of Shohei Ohtani documentary.
Reporting from Zak Thomas-Akoo of NEXT.io that BetMGM is increasing its investment in AI with plans to hire a couple of new leadership positions.
Reuters journalist Dawn Kopecki has the details on the rather significant amount of spending by the American sports betting industry ahead of the country’s midterm elections.
Of course, there are references to sports betting in a new report on sport from FGS Global.
DraftKings and Delta are getting together on a new free-to-play sports contest on flights within the U.S. of A.
Speaking of DraftKings, it is facing a lawsuit related to its new prediction market operation.
Aristocrat Interactive has a new iLottery platform up and running in Massachusetts.
Rob Fletcher of NEXT.io has the deets on the latest quarterly results for Light & Wonder, released this a.m.
Gaming operator Papaya has been whacked with a massive judgment in a false advertising tete-a-tete with Skillz.
The ATP Tour is the latest professional sports organization to partner with a prediction market provider (rhymes with Gollytarget. . . well, sort of).
Betway is all in with Manchester United on its latest sponsorship agreement.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets have hooked up with prediction market operator Novig.
ICYMI late last week, Underdog was acquired by IG Group.
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